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The Solution to Post-COVID Uncertainty

Learn why we created the PhoeniXG strategy, the principles behind it and performance comparison with our previous strategy (XG12).

Welcome to the ‘New Normal’

It is, perhaps, a cliche. However, we have to accept that in a truly global sense, what was ‘alien’ to us in early 2020 will become the norm in the medium-term at least. COVID-19 shaped our world in a way that we can’t even imagine yet. In the U.S. alone, the number of unemployment claims reached 36.5 million in just 8 weeks.

There has been the worst monthly contraction of U.S. industrial production in the last 101 years. Its capacity utilization is at the lowest historical point (64.9%). Yes, things could exceed even the Great Depression of 1929-1933 when all is said and done.

Nonetheless, the stock market has recovered, primarily thanks to a money-printing frenzy, which will likely lead to strong inflation in the upcoming years.

Football was halted, and we decided to use that time to scrupulously check each piece of our infrastructure. After a thorough analysis, we decided to rebuild it from the bottom up to implement new technologies.

Introducing PhoeniXG!

BIGGER Edge, GREATER Long-Term Profits, LOWER Risk

Reducing the volatility of our portfolio without harming returns was our primary objective. We tackled this issue first for three reasons:

  1. To mitigate the economic uncertainty faced by everyone, including Mercurius’ clients.
  2. To alleviate the level of risk brought by ‘unknown’ unknowns. No one is sure how the practice of Behind-Closed Doors (BCD) will impact teams and individual players. A reduction in home advantage is likely, but we have to account for various things we can’t measure, such as a squad’s mental state. No software can help measure that!
  3. To better compound the profits from our edges over the market.

We will achieve this by moving from a ROC-driven (return on capital) framework of research to a RoMaD one (return on capital over max drawdown). This will significantly minimize the risk of ruin. In XG12, we did this only by capping the exposure.

This new RoMaD-driven framework of research brought with it a whole new infrastructure. As a consequence, we have reframed three core parts of our process to estimate fair odds:

  1. Improving the core computational algorithms of the AI. The result is significantly more stable predictions. In times of uncertainty, stability is a winning strategy.
  2. Stricter control regarding our data feeds, and stronger measures to counteract ‘unconventional’ errors within them.
  3. Higher demand for expected value due to each league and market’s likely volatility.

The above is only the first step in the rise of PhoeniXG. It will reduce lengthy losing streaks and keep our clients’ bankrolls in healthier shape. The next goal is to boost turnover by improving the rating computation of each team, and also to add even more football leagues to the portfolio.

PhoeniXG: Providing Opportunity in a Crisis

Choosing the best combination of parameters to efficiently estimate expected goals for each team meant weighing up 10^10 possible combinations. This would have taken more than the life of the universe to search the whole space. An interesting project but one that would leave Mercurius’ clients waiting a while for their profits!

Instead, we rebuilt our infrastructure using brand new technologies to overcome computational bottlenecks. The process also allowed for tunnel-vision in terms of predictive power.

This permitted us to:

  1. Correctly use more data to assess xG probabilities without risking overfitting the model.
  2. Faster testing of more complex models
  3. Deployment of sophisticated models within useful computational times.

What This Means For Your Portfolio

First and foremost, PhoeniXG is committed to lowering risk and providing users with a steadier stream of profit. We are proud of XG12, but the upcoming situation meant it would remain less accurate than we would hope.

Now, we will provide:

  • Fewer bets due to a more detailed selection process
  • A far higher market edge
  • A better strike rate
  • Reduced drawdown
  • Greater long-term profits

Our dream when creating Mercurius was to show the world that sports trading is a genuine opportunity for each portfolio. PhoeniXG is what we have always wanted to create, and it is finally available to interested parties. Imagine winning more bets at better odds and enjoying reduced losing streaks. Now picture all this with someone else doing the work, and NO chance of bookmakers restricting your accounts.

Annualized ROC in units 27.23
Yield 17.21%
Average odds 3.79
Strike rate 38%
Tot bets 766
Bets to recover 68

PhoeniXG is the Future of Sports Betting

Much to the chagrin of bettors, the bookmaker always has an edge, usually in the 5-10% range depending on the bookie and market. Imagine trading places; only this time, you have a 17% edge! THAT is what PhoeniXG brings to the table.

Many bettors believe that BCD football will distort the markets. They are right because it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bettors will second-guess themselves, hesitate and lose the real edge.

PhoeniXG doesn’t hesitate or suffer a crisis of confidence. It ruthlessly swoops in and immediately snaps up value on the Betfair Exchange as kickoff looms. By the time the market reacts and shows true value, PhoeniXG will be sitting pretty while everyone else chases.

What This Means For Your Bank Balance

  • 73% reduction in max drawdown.
  • 80% fewer bets to recover the drawdown meaning your money becomes safer than ever.
  • 191% increase in yield per bet.
  • 100% faster in converging to expected returns.
  • 700% more confidence in achieving these returns.

PhoeniXG will offer approximately 170 bets a year, compared to its predecessor’s 700. The Return on Capital (ROC) falls to 27% from 68%.

Wait! What?

A combination of fewer bets and a lower ROC seems like bad news to most bettors. However, the reduction in wagers is down to a more selective approach. Which would you rather: Lots of bets and little profit, or fewer bets and more profit?

With PhoeniXG, you win more while risking less! Our new approach means we achieve a statistically significant positive performance in just 206 bets! With XG12, it was 1,700.

In any case, we plan to add more leagues and markets in the near future. This will once again increase the number of bets while retaining the level of profit and safety.


A higher return means greater inherent risk. It is a fact in all forms of investment. You can continue to chase a huge ROC and perhaps lose your entire bankroll. Alternatively, you can enjoy a still exceptional rate of returns and an exponentially higher level of safety. For those who want a sky-high ROC, the Roulette Wheel is that way, though we don’t recommend it!

XG12 Versus PhoeniXG

XG12 PhoeniXG
Annualized ROC 68% 27%
Bets to recover (worst drawdown over the total number of bets) 40% 8%
The time needed to obtain a statistically significant positive performance 2.42 Yrs 1.2 Yrs
Volatility 114% 23%
Yield 5.91% 17.21%
Expected n° bets per year 700 170

PhoeniXG Can Help Bring Your Bankroll Back From The Ashes

Unfortunately, XG12 is no more. We had to make changes to the deepest core structure of our technology. Trying to make XG12 compatible would have negatively affected PhoeniXG. XG12 was a wonderful creation and earned a profit for six consecutive years, including 20+% in five of them.

However, it is time to hail a new king, one that will transform the way you look at sports betting forever; a huge statistical edge, consistent profit, and lower downturns. PhoeniXG is the future, and we invite you to join.